Super Bowl LV betting – Buccaneers +3 vs Chiefs – Final score, pointspread prediction
Get our top NFL picks for every game of the 2020/21 season including our NFL picks against the spread. We dive into the data, betting trends, team news, and a lot more to bring you the best expert NFL picks each week. Check out our NFL predictions and NFL best bets pages for our top plays on today’s NFL. Sep 09, 2020 But in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season, his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are currently betting underdogs for their opener against the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The other week 1 NFL games mentioned have superstar showdowns, carry major weight in division races to start the year, and also offer numerous ways for bettors to profit. We will know more as the months go by, but right now, these week 1 NFL games look like fantastic opportunities for bettors to both enjoy great football and make money in the. May 14, 2020 The other week 1 NFL games mentioned have superstar showdowns, carry major weight in division races to start the year, and also offer numerous ways for bettors to profit. We will know more as the months go by, but right now, these week 1 NFL games look like fantastic opportunities for bettors to both enjoy great football and make money in the. NFL Week 1 odds, picks: Eagles emerge as popular best bet, four frisky underdogs to back and more staff picks We asked our staffers to pick their favorite best bet for Week 1, and here's what they.
Here’s the thing: Sentimentality and winning money in NFL betting are essentially mutually exclusive. NFLbets can say (write?) with confidence that no bettor ever became prosperous wagering on feelings and hunches. The proper bettor must place the emphasis on the numbers, the trends, the facts and information.
Yet for this Super Bowl, virtually every pregame show, ESPN gabfest or gambling-centered podcast since the conference championship games, the would-be Nostradami are pleased to inform that LV will be a great game, a close game and the Buccaneers might just win because Tom Brady. Get caught up in too much of the noise and the mantra of “Brady the GOAT, Brady the GOAT, Brady the GOAT” threatens to obfuscate rational thought about the point spread, which on Bowl Eve still reads
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Kansas City Chiefs
NFLbets implores bettors to stay sane, particularly as regards a certain player wearing the number 12 jersey. When considering how to bet the actual outcome of Super Bowl LV, we’d advise trying to strip away the names and labels. Consider:
• In getting to the final game, Kansas City first ran up a 19-3 lead against Cleveland before holding on for a win with a perennial backup at QB; they then smoked the Buffalo Bills, who had been looking like the AFC’s hottest team. Tampa Bay meanwhile let the 7-9 Washington FT stay within a score in the wild-card round, took care of business against a crippled New Orleans side and got past Green Bay because Matt LaFleur forgot how math works.
• In the NFC championship, Aaron Jones fumbled early in the 3rd quarter to allow the Bucs to earn a 28-10 lead after a single 8-yard TD pass. Thereafter, the Buccaneers starting quarterback went 6 for 13 for 70 yards – 29 yards of which came on a single reception to a guy considered the greatest TE ever to play the game – and 3 interceptions.
• The Chiefs are currently on a 31-6 SU (21-15-1 ATS) run since kickoff 2019; they’re also on a 25-2 SU run, with one of the two losses coming with second-stringers starting in week 17 of this season; the closest comparison in recent NFL history would be the 2003-04 New England Patriots’ mark of 34-4 SU (28-8-2 ATS). Further, in this two-year span, the Chiefs are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) when favored by 3½ points or less and are 28-4 SU (19-13-1 ATS) in all games when favored.
• And from the What Happened to this Statistic Department: For his career, Andy Reid-coached teams are now a ridiculous 24-4 SU after a bye week and 16-13 SU/18-11 ATS in the postseason. With the Chiefs, he’s 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) including 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS since 2019..
You can see how NFLbets – or even those merely considering these general trends – would favor Kansas City in this game. Of course, there is the actual football to take into account. Putting aside the mystique of Touchdown Tom, the real advantage(s) Tampa Bay has in Super Bowl LV is all in the trenches.
The truth is that the Chiefs defense ranks 31st against the run by the DVOA metric and dead last in the red zone; not exactly the stats you want when facing the twosome of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, guys who have been damaging unprepared run Ds all 2020.
And then there’s the well-publicized shuffling of the K.C. offensive line, beginning with left tackle where Mike Remmers moves from RT in the wake of Eric Fisher’s injury and affecting four of the five spots. Center Austin Reiter is the sole starter in the same position from last year’s Super Bowl win. But recall that a) the Chiefs get a bye week, b) Reid himself played on the BYU OL, and c) Chiefs line coach Andy Heck is an 8-year veteran of the Chiefs and considered one of the NFL’s best. NFLbets believes Kansas City has time to formulate a plan, even one that entails stopping Jason Pierre-Paul and compadres.
But hey, forget the facts if you must. You want a compelling narrative? Try this: In Super Bowl LV, we’ve got a generational matchup of Hall of Fame-level quarterbacks that might only be compared to Namath vs. Unitas, Bradshaw vs. Staubach, Manning vs. Wilson – now recall whose team won those matchups. This very game may be the flashpoint moment, the turning point, the changing of the guard from the Brady/Roethlisberger/Rodgers lot (and peers like the Mannings, Brees and Rivers already gone) eclipsed by a surprisingly massive wave of exciting young QBs starting with two-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and including Josh Allen, DeShaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, etc.
And with a win, the fledgling would-be GOAT will have led his team to this first Super Bowl championship repeat since who else but those 2003-04 Patriots. Who, except for maybe Gisele Bundchen, not appreciate such a narrative? Take the Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and enjoy the history of the moment.
–written by Os Davis
Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks, Preston Johnson and Tyler Fulghum, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Seth Walder of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday night.
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1 p.m. ET games
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 42)
Schatz: One of the most important precepts of football analytics is that defense is less consistent than offense from year to year. And there are plenty of reasons to believe the Patriots' defense is going to decline this year. Turnovers regress heavily to the mean, and the Patriots were extremely dependent on interceptions to put up their big defensive numbers in the first half of last season. In addition, the Patriots have lost more defensive talent than almost any team in history based on Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value. Combine that with the fact that the Miami offense might be a bit underrated -- Ryan Fitzpatrick was a shocking eighth in QBR last year -- and this over/under seems way too low.